The fundamental outlook is still bearish on most currencies especially the Euro which does not have a concrete plan on how to go about its fiscal problems.They have been moving from meeting to meeting with so many comments from every stakeholder such as Finland who were demanding collateral for the debts. However,some analysts do not think the Greece will default since the consequences for this action will have a domino effect of contagion to the other economies in Europe.The Germans and the French will do everything in their power to make sure this does not happen.The Eur/Usd is still holding at below the 38.2% fib on the daily taken from the 29th August highs to September 12th Lows off a minor correction.
The biggest event this week will be the FED meeting on Wednesday where the Chairman Ben Benanke will offer an insight regarding the Fed's policy stance and whether voting members see scope for another round of quantitative easing which many see as highly unlikely. This will definitely affect most of the currency pairs especially the Loonie that is heavily dependent on the US economy.
Gold which is a hedge against inflation for the USD will be moving higher if the dollar comes under pressure as investors look for safety for their money.The Aussie is also expected to be bearish with no expectations for interest rates increase any time soon and the poor economical data coming out of the antipodean country.As for the Yen, we should move with caution as it is expected to act soon on its strengthening currency which is at its all time highs.They might just intervene to ease strength but going by their previous interventions,the pair has often gone back to the same place it was before the intervention.So keep an eye.
Good luck trading out there and please do your own analysis before making any decisions.
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