Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Swiss Franc

The Swiss franc is the top performer against the greenback mid-day in North American trade, advancing more than 2% on the session. The Swiss National Bank refrained from remarks about possible steps to stem the rapid rise of the swissie today, easing concerns of further SNB intervention. The central bank has continually disseminated rhetoric about the currency’s rise for the past three weeks, leaving traders reluctant to move on the franc. The USD/CHF pair broke below interim support in pre-market trade before finding solace just above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement taken from the July 19th decline at the 0.80-figure. This level is likely to hold in for now as it provided strong resistance for nearly a month before breaching the extension last Friday, noting subsequent floors lower at 0.7950, the 0.79-handle, and 0.7850. The franc is unlikely to see substantial gains past this level as investors will remain cautious not to push the swissie to high too fast on concerns the SNB will step back in to curb market appetite. Topside resistance holds at the 0.81-figure, backed by 0.8150 and 0.8230. Overnight traders will be eyeing data out of Switzerland with July retail sales and the SVME- PMI report on tap.

Sunday, August 28, 2011

This Coming week

On the Gbp/Usd I will be expecting some minor bullish  price action before a pull back and continuation. With all things remaining constant, Interventions,Euro Problems the pair might become the safe haven of choice.
The Euro/Usd is now consolidating in a tight triangle formation on the daily and is bound to break out in any direction given the market volatility and uncertainty.It is making lower highs but at the same time getting caught in a tight range.


The Nzd/Usd seems to be making  a head and shoulders pattern and i will be waiting to see how it breaks out before i can enter on the trade.


One pair i will be watching closely come next month is the Chf/Jpy that has made a huge bearish pin bar on the monthly chart.With all the interventions from both countries and the recession fears from Europe and US,most traders will really be watching this pair.





Friday, August 26, 2011

Daily trading stats

As was expected, Uncle Ben disappointing many traders signaling that they may be no further stimulus yet.However,It was the Swiss Franc – not the Euro or the U.S. Dollar – that found the most selling pressure in the wake of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech earlier today. Speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled no further easing measures, but did note that at an extended meeting in September, the Federal Open Market Committee would discuss further policy options.


Also making the rounds, in terms of what could have propelled the Swiss Franc to lows against both the Euro and the U.S. Dollar in just a few minutes, was a rumor that Swiss Bank UBS would begin charging clients for Franc deposits. Whether or not the rumor holds any water remains to be seen, but the situation should be monitored, because if it is a Swiss National Bank mandate, then the implications will extend to other Swiss Banks, and could drop the Franc lower (this has since been refuted since the original report suggested so).


In other news, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan resigned overnight after months of criticism over his leadership during the March 11th earthquake and subsequent tsunami that sparked the nation’s deepest postwar economic crisis. The greenback should remain well supported in light of the fact that the Fed will not be implementing any further dollar diluting policies in an effort to stimulate the ailed economy. Accordingly the pair may continue to trade within its recent range.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Continued volatility

Much of the outlook for the months ahead hinges squarely on what is said by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, with many breathlessly hoping for the unveiling for another round of stimulus to underpin sagging growth. Faced with such a clear inflection point in the global macroeconomic landscape, a large crowd of investors have apparently taken to the sidelines, draining market liquidity and producing erratic price action that is subsequently difficult to explain.

Looking ahead, more of the same is likely until the Fed Chairman finally utters the words everyone has been waiting for and – whether stimulus is announced or not – allows the markets to digest what is to come in the months ahead, thereby finally expressing some directional conviction. 

Gold and silver formed a pin-bar on the 4hr that has seen serious pullback taking out stops before finally looking bullish again. This may be some correction before the continued plunge or may be the end of the bigger correction and we may be heading back to the big round number 2000 for Gold.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Up coming week 22nd August 2011

Two day pin bar on the Euro/Pound daily chart.The Euro has still to deal with the bank problems in Spain and may see a bearish sentiment return next week.I will be watching for bullish sentiment come Monday with a test on the trend line before a pull back or a cross, a retest and continuation. Minor divergence on the RSI and the MACD.

Another pair i will be watching closely is the Aud/Usd. Big weekend bullish pin bar last week that came back to form an inverted inside bar on the weekly stopping on a big round number.The dollar may be recovering and may just send the pair lower once again.The other antipodean pair of the Dollar the NZD/USD may be headed lower with a bearish bar last week on the weekly and the daily.First stop may be the 8000 mark before we can continue either lower or bounce back for some correction.

Gold and Silver seemed to making higher highs with bad news coming from the Euro region as well as the US.Gold is now headed for 2000 mark while silver is making a comeback with a very bullish week last week which may indicate further strength this week.I stay bullish on both for the coming week.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Daily stats

The Swiss franc remained the top performer against the greenback for the third consecutive day, with a 1.33% advance against a weaker US dollar. Market sentiment seems to have improved after yesterday’s sharp sell-off, with equities moving into positive territory soon after the open. The dollar has come under extreme pressure early in North American trade with the Dow Jones Dollar Index paring all of the gains seen on the back of yesterday’s risk sell-off. Subsequently the greenback has fallen against all its major counterparts, the swissie leading the assault. However markets are likely to drift into the close as traders take to the sidelines amid thinned weekend trade. The USD/CHF pair briefly tagged the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the July 19th descent at 0.7814 where interim support now rests. A break below this level sees subsequent floors at 0.7770, 0.7730 and the 50% retracement at 0.7670. Interim resistance holds at 0.7950, backed by the 76.4% retracement at the 0.80-figure and 0.8045.

The EUR/CHF was hit particularly hard in the overnight, falling nearly 300-pips from the high, to as low as 1.1242, at the time this report was written. The pair was dragged lower by two separate forces: the decline in European equities, translating into a weaker Euro; and market participants doubting the credibility of the Swiss National Bank after it failed to levy a Franc-Euro peg, as it previously suggested it would. Now that the peg policy option is off the table in the near-term, it is likely that the EUR/CHF pair will head lower, especially as market volume picks up headed into the third quarter.

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Daily trading analysis

The Aussie dollar seemed to have regained some of its strength after last weeks bearish momentum against most pairs. It formed a very big pin bar on Fridays close against the Euro and is now trading lower. Against the pound it is still in an indecision even after the weekly pin bar formed last week.

The SNB failed to decide on pegging the Swiss Franc to the Euro but still maintains that it will introduce measures to weaken its currency. A strong currency seemed to have had adverse effects on its economy and the SNB are adding liquidity into the market to try and ease the strength it has gained over the last few months. This saw the Franc gain some strength early during the London session only to loose it coming into the US open session which is at around 5pm GMT+3 here.Whether they will succeed in convincing the market is another thing all together as the CHF has been a safe haven currency for a long time and a lot has to be done.

The Eur/Usd continues to make lower highs this evening as the usual problems continue to affect the Euro zone. Off the highs of 4516 the pair is now trading lower. The Usd/Chf also seems to be trading lower today from the new highs of 8016 it had made earlier in the day. The Nzd/usd is stuck in a range after making a major correction from 7964 now trading at 8384 after reaching the 84 mark.


I am currently short Eur/Aud from 1.3732 which i will carry till tomorrow. lets see how it pens out.



Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Daily trading stats

There was poor data coming out of the European region with 2nd Quarter readings German Preliminary GDP coming in lower by 0.1% than expected figure of 0.5%. However pound CPI reading come in favorable at 4.4%.

The biggest news that will be highly anticipated is on Wednesday when we wait to hear if the SNB will be pegging the Swiss Franc to the Euro in an effort to reduce the strength it has gained over the last few months. This will definitely cause a lot of volatility tomorrow so lets wait and see on the sidelines for now.

I have just exited a Gbp/Chf position in light of tomorrows announcements at a profit following the massive weekly pin-bar formation on the weekend which opened up with a gap as i had expected but made a pull back and is currently trading higher.

Sunday, August 14, 2011

Bullish on CHF Pairs

Price action dictates that most swiss franc pairs may see a bullish trend next week with pin bars forming on most of the pairs especially my favorite the GBP/CHF. The pound is now being seen as becoming more of a safe haven currency because of the Euro troubles that wont go away.


There is a very nice pin bar on the weekly that suggests some bullish action this coming week. This is as a results of the Swiss National Bank SNB deciding that they may peg the Swiss Franc to the Euro. This caused the currency asset to loose most of its gains in the earlier days reaching historical laws with most of the other pairs.

I will definitely be looking to get into this one with a bias on the bullish side. Lets see how it will perform come next week.

Friday, August 12, 2011

AUD/JPY 4HR

Possible triangle pattern formation on this pair we might see a break either way. Fundamentals favour the Yen so far but volatility this week has been amazing.

Currently the cable trading at the 62-63 area from the early morning jump from 6160's. The Eur/Usd is also trading much higher at 4250 right now jumping from 4150. There is something to note since this jump has been big considering this is the end of the week. leaving any positions for the weekend is not adviced with this kind of volatility.

GBP on the 4hr


GBP/USD looking bearish off the 21MA in the early morning with continued USD weakness from earlier this week.However today being a Friday i would be on the sideline until I can get a better direction on the pair.

Trading results for FXDD account

FXDD Malta

Account: 8200792
Name:Jamhurifx
Currency: USD
2011 October 4, 22:16
Closed Transactions:
Ticket
Open Time
Type
Size
Item
Price
S / L
T / P
Close Time
Price
Commission
Taxes
Swap
Profit
61998703
2011.06.21 18:49
balance
Deposit
5 000.00
62923962
2011.07.04 08:04
sell
0.30
eurusd
1.45519
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.04 17:09
1.45196
0.00
0.00
0.00
96.90
62923970
2011.07.04 08:04
buy
0.30
gbpusd
1.60886
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.06 08:46
1.60565
0.00
0.00
0.42
-96.30
62923977
2011.07.04 08:04
buy
0.30
gbpchf
1.36367
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.06 08:45
1.34964
0.00
0.00
0.42
-500.82
62923983
2011.07.04 08:04
buy
0.30
gbpjpy
129.916
0.000
0.000
2011.07.06 08:45
129.963
0.00
0.00
0.52
17.42
62924022
2011.07.04 08:06
sell
0.30
audcad
1.02961
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.04 13:00
1.03211
0.00
0.00
0.00
-78.07
63343592
2011.07.11 08:02
sell
0.30
gbpusd
1.59996
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.11 10:21
1.59605
0.00
0.00
0.00
117.30
63343677
2011.07.11 08:03
buy
0.30
audcad
1.03419
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.12 17:30
1.02680
0.00
0.00
2.65
-229.21
63343699
2011.07.11 08:04
buy
0.30
audnzd
1.28405
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.12 07:07
1.29225
0.00
0.00
1.22
201.66
63415842
2011.07.11 17:40
buy
0.30
audcad
1.03068
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.12 17:29
1.02679
0.00
0.00
2.65
-120.64
63651619
2011.07.13 09:05
buy
0.30
eurjpy
111.486
0.000
0.000
2011.07.13 17:42
111.865
0.00
0.00
0.00
143.81
63651626
2011.07.13 09:05
buy
0.30
gbpjpy
126.747
0.000
0.000
2011.07.13 17:42
126.847
0.00
0.00
0.00
37.95
63759437
2011.07.14 08:01
buy
0.30
usdcad
0.95937
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.14 19:31
0.95997
0.00
0.00
0.00
18.75
63759455
2011.07.14 08:02
sell
0.30
audusd
1.07403
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.14 19:31
1.07283
0.00
0.00
0.00
36.00
63861865
2011.07.15 12:20
sell
0.30
gbpusd
1.60986
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.18 10:43
1.60971
0.00
0.00
-0.99
4.50
63861974
2011.07.15 12:22
sell
0.30
gbpjpy
127.474
127.700
126.800
2011.07.18 01:16
127.700
0.00
0.00
-1.19
-85.64
64074286
2011.07.20 08:00
sell
0.30
gbpjpy
127.583
0.000
126.850
2011.07.20 10:23
126.850
0.00
0.00
0.00
278.77
64074292
2011.07.20 08:00
buy
0.30
eurgbp
0.87810
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.20 08:10
0.87710
0.00
0.00
0.00
-48.35
64248129
2011.07.22 08:00
sell
0.30
eurusd
1.43907
0.00000
1.43000
2011.07.22 16:16
1.43608
0.00
0.00
0.00
89.70
64248140
2011.07.22 08:00
sell
0.30
eurjpy
113.095
0.000
0.000
2011.07.22 16:16
112.586
0.00
0.00
0.00
194.76
64399178
2011.07.26 08:30
buy
0.30
gbpchf
1.31123
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.26 14:37
1.31735
0.00
0.00
0.00
228.55
64399320
2011.07.26 08:33
buy
0.30
audcad
1.03100
0.00000
0.00000
2011.07.26 14:36
1.03044
0.00
0.00
0.00
-17.84
64819803
2011.08.02 08:06
sell
0.30
gbpchf
1.27371
1.28000
1.26400
2011.08.02 10:30
1.26400
0.00
0.00
0.00
374.99
64819981
2011.08.02 08:07
sell
0.30
gbpusd
1.63117
1.63550
1.62700
2011.08.02 09:59
1.62700
0.00
0.00
0.00
125.10
64820436
2011.08.02 08:11
sell
0.30
eurusd
1.42389
1.42770
1.41400
2011.08.02 11:06
1.42140
0.00
0.00
0.00
74.70
64916422
2011.08.03 08:28
buy
0.30
audusd
1.07440
0.00000
0.00000
2011.08.03 09:32
1.07197
0.00
0.00
0.00
-72.90
64916427
2011.08.03 08:28
buy
0.30
eurusd
1.42077
0.00000
0.00000
2011.08.03 09:32
1.41665
0.00
0.00
0.00
-123.60
65422286
2011.08.08 08:07
buy
0.30
gbpchf
1.24266
0.00000
0.00000
2011.08.08 10:33
1.25709
0.00
0.00
0.00
565.94
65422329
2011.08.08 08:08
buy
0.30
eurusd
1.43255
0.00000
0.00000
2011.08.08 10:33
1.43626
0.00
0.00
0.00
111.30
66238175
2011.08.15 05:43
buy
0.30
gbpchf
1.28714
0.00000
0.00000
2011.08.16 18:29
1.29897
0.00
0.00
0.23
448.64
66238205
2011.08.15 05:43
buy
0.30
eurchf
1.13087
0.00000
0.00000
2011.08.16 18:29
1.13904
0.00
0.00
0.70
309.85
66476312
2011.08.16 16:12
buy
0.30
xagusd
39.68
39.30
40.35
2011.08.16 17:08
39.81
0.00
0.00
0.00
39.00
66625651
2011.08.17 09:52
sell
0.30
euraud
1.37316
1.38160
1.33100
2011.08.18 21:33
1.38160
0.00
0.00
10.82
-262.71
67015562
2011.08.19 07:41
sell
0.30
eurchf
1.13512
1.14800
1.11000
2011.08.23 18:16
1.13647
0.00
0.00
-4.64
-51.30
67015954
2011.08.19 08:09
sell
0.30
eurjpy
109.500
0.000
109.000
2011.08.23 18:15
110.159
0.00
0.00
-3.63
-258.32
67076518
2011.08.19 15:59
sell
0.30
eurjpy
110.081
0.000
109.000
2011.08.23 18:15
110.162
0.00
0.00
-3.63
-31.75
67293111
2011.08.23 10:53
sell limit
0.30
eurjpy
111.000
111.500
109.000
2011.08.23 11:04
110.945
cancelled
67295897
2011.08.23 11:04
sell
0.30
eurjpy
110.941
0.000
109.000
2011.08.23 18:15
110.173
0.00
0.00
0.00
301.06
67391467
2011.08.24 06:59
sell
0.30
eurcad
1.42443
1.43050
1.41000
2011.08.24 18:35
1.42344
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.04
67557166
2011.08.25 16:06
buy
0.30
xauusd
1736.65
1721.75
1790.00
2011.08.25 16:22
1721.75
0.00
0.00
0.00
-447.00
67557174
2011.08.25 16:06
buy
0.30
xagusd
39.88
0.36
41.01
2011.08.25 17:54
39.98
0.00
0.00
0.00
30.00
67560102
2011.08.25 16:19
buy
0.30
xauusd
1728.65
0.00
1765.00
2011.08.25 17:54
1736.07
0.00
0.00
0.00
222.60
67561876
2011.08.25 16:33
buy
0.30
xauusd
1708.20
0.00
1765.85
2011.08.25 17:53
1733.96
0.00
0.00
0.00
772.80
67561910
2011.08.25 16:33
buy
0.30
xagusd
39.32
0.00
41.00
2011.08.25 17:53
40.04
0.00
0.00
0.00
216.00
67732873
2011.08.29 06:14
buy
0.30
gbpusd
1.63766
1.63200
1.64700
2011.08.30 07:40
1.63963
0.00
0.00
0.21
59.10
67732905
2011.08.29 06:15
buy
0.30
gbpchf
1.32628
1.31750
1.36300
2011.08.30 07:52
1.34105
0.00
0.00
0.23
541.77
67947823
2011.08.31 06:41
sell
0.30
gbpchf
1.33381
1.34500
1.31100
2011.08.31 15:55
1.31100
0.00
0.00
0.00
852.16
67948387
2011.08.31 07:02
buy
0.30
xauusd
1833.65
1814.76
1911.71
2011.08.31 16:51
1814.76
0.00
0.00
0.00
-566.70
68035018
2011.09.01 08:21
sell
0.30
eurjpy
110.331
0.000
0.000
2011.09.01 11:04
110.066
0.00
0.00
0.00
103.35
68035030
2011.09.01 08:21
sell
0.30
gbpjpy
124.733
0.000
0.000
2011.09.01 11:14
124.810
0.00
0.00
0.00
-30.03
68425236
2011.09.07 08:26
sell
0.30
xagusd
41.41
0.00
40.50
2011.09.07 16:30
40.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
273.00
68425335
2011.09.07 08:29
buy
0.30
chfjpy
90.224
0.000
0.000
2011.09.08 19:57
88.721
0.00
0.00
-1.64
-581.95
68531222
2011.09.08 16:00
buy
0.30
chfjpy
89.113
0.000
0.000
2011.09.08 19:57
88.698
0.00
0.00
0.00
-160.70
68703253
2011.09.12 07:30
sell
0.30
xauusd
1848.65
0.00
1825.40
2011.09.12 18:09
1831.20
0.00
0.00
0.00
523.50
68818417
2011.09.13 07:42
buy
0.30
eurusd
1.36856
0.00000
0.00000
2011.09.14 21:44
1.37578
0.00
0.00
0.49
216.60
68818425
2011.09.13 07:43
buy
0.30
nzdusd
0.82426
0.00000
0.00000
2011.09.14 21:45
0.82011
0.00
0.00
1.27
-124.50
68818433
2011.09.13 07:44
buy
0.30
eurjpy
105.415
0.000
0.000
2011.09.14 21:45
105.466
0.00
0.00
0.44
19.96
69030065
2011.09.15 07:33
sell
0.30
eurusd
1.37190
0.00000
1.36200
2011.09.19 16:21
1.36200
0.00
0.00
-2.22
297.00
69030091
2011.09.15 07:33
sell
0.30
eurjpy
105.152
0.000
104.157
2011.09.19 17:31
104.248
0.00
0.00
-3.49
354.11
69119395
2011.09.16 07:09
sell
0.30
eurusd
1.38585
0.00000
1.36200
2011.09.19 16:21
1.36200
0.00
0.00
-1.00
715.50
69122808
2011.09.16 08:53
sell
0.30
eurjpy
106.375
0.000
104.190
2011.09.19 17:26
104.190
0.00
0.00
-1.74
854.86
69479701
2011.09.22 06:27
buy
0.30
euraud
1.35333
0.00000
1.36400
2011.09.22 13:11
1.36400
0.00
0.00
0.00
315.73
69483097
2011.09.22 07:26
sell
0.30
gbpchf
1.39251
0.00000
1.37300
2011.09.27 08:46
1.40731
0.00
0.00
-6.67
-491.80
69709727
2011.09.26 08:08
sell
0.30
gbpjpy
117.899
0.000
117.050
2011.09.27 08:15
119.012
0.00
0.00
-1.72
-437.13
69710007
2011.09.26 08:13
buy
0.30
eurchf
1.22159
0.00000
0.00000
2011.09.26 12:16
1.22159
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
69710414
2011.09.26 08:19
sell
0.30
gbpchf
1.40662
0.00000
0.00000
2011.09.27 08:46
1.40730
0.00
0.00
-2.20
-22.59
69934017
2011.09.28 06:04
sell
0.30
xauusd
1636.60
0.00
0.00
2011.09.28 21:21
1601.48
0.00
0.00
0.00
1 053.60
69939297
2011.09.28 07:36
sell
0.30
gbpusd
1.56180
0.00000
1.55000
2011.09.28 21:22
1.55979
0.00
0.00
0.00
60.30
69946643
2011.09.28 09:59
sell
0.30
xauusd
1651.10
0.00
0.00
2011.09.28 21:21
1601.85
0.00
0.00
0.00
1 477.50
70035970
2011.09.29 08:18
buy
0.30
nzdusd
0.77868
0.00000
0.00000
2011.09.29 10:57
0.78194
0.00
0.00
0.00
97.80
70036186
2011.09.29 08:23
buy
0.30
xauusd
1617.60
0.00
0.00
2011.09.29 10:56
1631.10
0.00
0.00
0.00
405.00
70253756
2011.10.03 16:02
sell
0.30
xauusd
1652.20
0.00
0.00
2011.10.04 22:07
1597.33
0.00
0.00
0.10
1 646.10
70253859
2011.10.03 16:03
sell
0.30
eurgbp
0.85922
0.00000
0.00000
2011.10.04 06:02
0.85485
0.00
0.00
-0.32
202.62

0.00
0.00
-12.71
10 317.80
Closed P/L:
10 305.09
Open Trades:
Ticket
Open Time
Type
Size
Item
Price
S / L
T / P

Price
Commission
Taxes
Swap
Profit
No transactions


0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

Floating P/L:
0.00
Working Orders:
Ticket
Open Time
Type
Size
Item
Price
S / L
T / P
Market Price

No transactions


Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal:
5 000.00
Credit Facility:
0.00

Closed Trade P/L:
10 305.09
Floating P/L:
0.00
Margin:
0.00
Balance:
15 305.09
Equity:
15 305.09
Free Margin:
15 305.09