TO ALL TRADERS

Nzd/Jpy

Nice inverted Head and shoulders pattern.Lets see how things pan out for a long term entry.

Trading opportunites

Eur/Jpy has formed a Bullish bar during the week after comments from ECB that they may begin bond buying .The Aussie and  New Zealand dollar are as well bullish and may continue rising on the short term as they depend a lot on the Euro region for trade.
This pair shows divergence on the RSI indicator as well which further emphasizes more bullishness.

Gold and crude where equally bullish moving to the end of the week with the renewed risk appetite that saw money flow away from the safe havens into riskier assets.Light sweet crude formed a reverse H&S pattern that was broken on the daily charts and is headed higher should the same conditions continue to prevail. 
Gold was also not left behind and is headed higher after breaking the bullish ascending triangle on the daily charts.I am expecting a minor pull back on both pairs before bullish continuation come next week as the markets continue with the renewed confidence in the Euro.

Gold must first break the 1629 resistance line that has held for a while now with the 38.2% fib level.A break above will further increase chances of more bullish price action in the coming weeks.

 Good luck trading this week and watch out for the main events.

Aud/Usd

Great call on our part with the H&S pattern on the 4hr chart for a good 90 pips or so from the break.

Still watching most pairs against the USD for opportunities.Happy trading and have a fabulous weekend.

Aud/Usd

Early morning 4hr chart on this pair.With a seemingly head and shoulders pattern.

See what comes out of it.

Global Financial crisis

This is an informative documentary on how the global financial crisis took effect.

Enjoy!!!!

This week trading tips

With the massive flight of safety in the financial markets,the US dollar has seen massive gains in the last 12 days of trading out performing most of the currency pairs tremendously. It is only the Japanese Yen that has managed to out do the Dollar which could only mean that Yen pairs are quickly on the down trend.With all the fundamental news especially from the Euro which continues to signal further losses against the Green Buck and the British pound which saw a massive move lower with the BOE change in stance to much more dovish outlook,technical analysis may have a different outlook towards the currencies this coming week.We might see some corrections with the candle stick formations on the daily and the weekly charts.

A bullish bar on the daily chart at the end of the week may signal some impending strength by the Euro for a small correction before reverting to its bearish momentum.There are still too many issues especially with Greece and Spain that recorded massive capital outflow from its banking system signalling fear by investors on the outcome that may befall on its Euro counterpart.A bullish bar formed Friday which may see some bullish or sideways market this week before continuation down.

There is some divergence on the Daily chart with the RSI.The two currency move more or less in the same way being neighbors but price action from last week may indicate some correction before continuation as well.

 Cable formed some sought of a pin bar from the 50% retracement fib from Aprils highs that was unable to get past the 200 Moving average.A break above this may be some sign of a correction but we will wait and see how it pans out.

And finally,the Canadian dollar has broken an ascending trend line on the weekly charts and is right at the 61.8% fib line taken from the march highs and late last years lows.A break below this fib level may signal further strengthening of the Yen which has been very impressive in the last few trading days. 
This in my opinion may offer some great trading opportunities this coming week .Good luck trading out there and stay safe.

Yen Pairs

A couple of price set ups on the weekly chart on the Yen pairs for those who are interested in checking them out.The Yen has been strengthening since last week as a result of flight to safety especially from Europe that continues to see more and more economic turmoil on member states. Euro/Jpy has some divergence on the stochastics that may or may not play out.It is also at the 61.8 fib level next to some support at 102.66.This week holds some major European GDP releases that may impact the market tremendously.Lets see how it all plays out.

The Nzd/Jpy  has more or less the same set up and may be a great play with some divergence on the RSI standing at a support of 62.50 this morning.With growing concern on its poor performance, it may just have a little correction should risk appetite continue to fade and resume its bearish trend.Watching for a better price to go in short.



The Euro dollar on the other hand broke out short as we had anticipated in the earlier week for some good pips on both the Euro/Usd and the Usd/Chf.The run may continue should there be poor economical data this week while the Usd will continue to gather strength as the safe heaven currency.Nzd/Usd also has some divergence on the weekly chart and I am waiting this pairs to see if opportunity may present itself for some correction before continuation with the trend.Good luck trading this week and watch out for the GDP figures coming up.

Trade set ups

I will be looking at these trade set ups to get in should price confirm my directional bias:

The Euro is now tightly packed in a congestion area against the Usd and the Aud which saw some weakness earlier this week as a result of the 50 basis point cut by the RBA.A break out this congestion areas may see some good price movements.
In my opinion Eur/Usd is poised for a bearish break further down with all the turmoil in the region and the Spanish bank issues that have refused to go away.

 Usd/Chf which is the inverse of Eur/Usd is also in such a range and may be headed higher should the pair move above the 9150 resistance with a clear break.

Eur/Aud has been in a up trend since mid February and is currently in a congestion area.A break from this ascending triangle either way may be a good trade given the fundamentals in the two regions.

Eur/Nzd has seemingly formed an inverted H&S pattern on the 4 hr chart.However,follow through may be a bit tricky for this pair but only time will tell.

And finally,Cad/Chf is also in an ascending triangle on the daily chart.The Swiss Franc has been a little tricky to trade recently and I really don't like its price movements.But for those that trade this pair,fundamentals from Europe are very important right now especially any rhetoric from the SNB can really cause it to really move.

I will be watching this pairs for the next few hours as its already Thursday and who knows what will happen during the weekend.Good luck trading and happy pips.

Morning price action

The Pound seems to have lost some steam and is now looking to trade lower against the dollar since yesterday.It is also looking lower against the Yen which broke a major support area yesterday and is poised for 128 in the near future. However,there has been very little movement in the market for a while now as capital is still sited on the sidelines waiting for better opportunities.

Most pairs are also looking weaker against the Yen as its intervention by the Government did not yield the results they had been hoping for.They increased their asset purchase programme in the hope of creating a weaker yen as they had done before that saw the Usd/Jpy shoot up from the 77 to 84 area earlier in the year. For the short term, i am bearish on most yen pairs as I continue to watch for any events that may point otherwise for the long term .
The Euro seems seems to be trading stronger this week against most pairs and could be in a minor correction from last weeks price action.The Euro area is still under a lot of pressure with the downgrading of Spain and its rising unemployment as well as the strong resistance by the major countries towards bailouts for weaker countries.We are also watching the French election which may be a mover of price action especially since Nicolas Sarkozy is trailing his opponent from the socialist party.Lets continue to keep an eye on this events as they unfold.
 The RBA has just cut its interest rate by up to 50 basis points which is 25 basis points more than the expected cut this morning and has seen the AUD lose value against most currencies across the board. I will continue to follow this events and take care that my trades are not negatively affected by such events.
Good luck trading !!!!

This weeks 23rd April 2012

Pound has reached a major resistance line at 1.6127 on Fridays closing and may be headed lower this coming week.There is some bearish divergence on the daily charts with the MACD which in my opinion suggests some bearish  move to the 6000 levels.

Daily chart with bearish divergence.Keep an eye on this pair this coming week depending on how it will open come Monday morning.There is some news coming this week on the 1st quarter GDP reading s that may be a game change with higher expectations.

There is some bullish divergence on the Aud/Usd pair on the weekly chart which may signal some bullish action this coming week.However,most readings from Australia have not been as encouraging and may be slow to develop.Weeklies are however long term and any news from the FOMC this week may be a game changer.Take note and act accordingly.

 I am also looking at the Yen pairs this week which have been bullish across the board for most of last week.Still bullish for this pair though especially with the Eur/Jpy that has a big bullish bar on the weekly chart that only suggests further bullish action on an upward trend since mid January this year.A move higher could lead to the double top formed at around the 112 area earlier this year.

However,Gbp/Jpy has formed a harmonic pattern that may suggest some bearish price action on the daily chart for the coming week.The pair is almost at overbought on the daily chart.I will be watching for price action for this pair to take advantage should the Yen strengthen.

This are the trade set up I will be watching closely for this coming week.Kindly do your own analysis and feel free to add your thoughts to what I have posted.Have a great week people.

possible trades

On a technical basis, i have Chf/Jpy that has formed a pin bar on a major support at  around 87.75.I will be watching to see if it actually holds on as major support.The pair is also at oversold.Most yen pairs move together and will also have an eye out for the others.

Eur/Aud has also formed a bullish candle just like the Eur/usd and the Gbp/Usd.We will be watching this pair if they will continue with the move upwards after a yesterdays dramatic comeback during the US session.

Good luck trading.

Possible patterns

Silver has formed what could be possibly a H&S pattern depending on how you want to see it.Will be looking for a break below the shoulder line for an entry short.The pair which has been closely correlated to gold for a while now will definitely be affected with news from the US dollar with all the QE3 speculations and may be good to watch for opportunities.

 Gbp/Jpy is in my opinion forming a Gartley pattern on the weekly time frame.This could be a good indicator on the direction of the trend should it play out as expected.Repatriation of funds by corporations back into Japan has caused a lot of volatility for the Yen pairs over the last few days of trading and a slow down may cause the currency to once again strengthen to its previous position. Our earlier positions on this pair could have given us plenty more pips had we held for the longer term.

Good luck trading to all and happy pips.

Eur/Jpy

Eur/Jpy is actually very bullish after a lackluster performance during the European session earlier in the day.We had spotted a reversal potential pin bar yesterday as per the last post which has given us so far some good pips after it reversed all the way to the 109.00 level.Chances are that it might get to the top of the range formed between the 111.30 area and the 108.60's area.I closed out the position since we do not know what next week will bring.

Yen Pair

There is potential reversal signals on the yen pairs.Looking at the Eur/Jpy and the Cad/Jpy forming potential pin bars right at support of on the 4hr chart.I will be watching this for entry long on the short term.

Commodities

As we had predicted earlier,most commodities went much lower on yesterdays trading as well as today as the US dollar continued to gather momentum.This was possible due to Bernanke remarks earlier in the week that suggested some possibility of QE3 according to some analysts. However Gold went as was expected and is now held by the 50% fib level from the beginning of the year to the highs in end February.

Silver also followed suit being closely co related to gold.It is also being held at the 50% fib level as you can see in the chart below. A break below this line will first see support at 31.50 before further collapse should the US dollar continue to strengthen

I will constantly continue to look for this moves and update them on the blog.I had a good opportunity entering the Gbp/Jpy on the 4hr chart earlier on Tuesday at around 8pm and made some pips.I came out too early though as you can check it is still plummeting.
Good luck trading out there.

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GbpUsd

Been holding this position from yesterday.The pair has formed a bearish candle which in my opinion indicates the strength of the resistance at around 5970 area.I am still short this pair to around 5900 and later to 5800 or so.

Commodities are also in my opinion heading lower after hitting resistance levels last night.I am in short for the short term.

Commodities

Gold and silver seem to be headed lower at the moment after a very slow day today.The US session seemed to have brought in more volume.Gold seems to have hit a strong level at around the 1690's level that is acting very well as resistance,the 38.2% fib and the 200 SMA .I will be watching to see how it reacts.I will target the 50% level for a conservative profit taking if we get in short later on.

Silver has also reached a crucial resistance level at around 33.16 level that is also the 38% fib retracement level.I will be watching to see if it gives a signal to enter short for a conservative profit to the 50% fib retracement and then later to the 31.50 mark.

I will be watching to see how it all pans out.Good luck trading and lets wait until the final bar closes then we can weigh our options.

Gbp/Usd

Pair seems to be forming a double top on the 4hr and daily chart with RSI reading at almost overbought.Am looking to short this pair back to 5800 on the short term.

USD/CAD

Usd/Cad is currently at a major psychological level and the 200 Sma is holding as support.Watching for any news that may affect this pair but a break may be unlikely currently.Stochastic are not yet oversold so it may see some bullish reaction if it does not break the 1.0000 line and the 200SMA.watching this pair for a few pips on the daily.

This week

Been away for a while but nothing has really changed.Gold is still on a bullish run as well as silver which is highly correlated.However, Eur/usd which highly correlates to the Usd/Chf has formed a bearish divergence on the daily charts.Watching for price action to confirm to go short on the pair.

Usd/chf on the other hand is showing bullish divergence.SNB may at anytime begin to weaken the CHF as it has done before.I will be more bullish with this pair.

Cable

Cable is at the 50% fib level taken from the highs in 31st October 2011 and the lows in mid January this year.There is a trend line stretching from the same highs all the way and is currently acting as major resistance to the pair.With all developments in Europe currently,we will patiently wait to see if it manages to break the trend line and fib level probably during the US session for continuation or will it be rejected for some bearish move after a major correction for the last 10 days or so.I
 

Eur/Gbp

Eur/Gbp is fast approaching resistance at 0.8372 which may prove to be a major huddle.A break above may signal further Euro strength given the current conditions. However a rejection may signal bearish move towards 8300 and lower.Again, a trader must be patient and disciplined enough to wait for the setup to come to and not go for it before it manifests itself.

Good luck trading to all and do a thorough analysis before engaging the market as capital flows begin to trickle back into the market.

Aud/cad

Aud/cad is on a double top formation with highs from October  28th 2011 at the moment and may be headed lower for the next coming days.It has already formed a bearish pin bar on the daily and may just be looking at 1.05000 before moving lower.Lets watch how it goes.

Nzd/usd gartley pattern is still in play. Will wait to see if it breaks below the 200 MA.

Nzd/Usd

Gartley pattern formation on this pair.Kiwi dollar has been strong all along due to its high yield and has out performed all the other asset classes recently.However, today saw minimal movement but may begin a correction downwards towards 7900 after it is rejected by the 78.6% fib level and the 200 SMA.Lets keep an eye out for price action for this pair.Will enter short once price confirms a bearish formation for a few pips.

Usd/Cad

This pair is in an ascending wedge pattern on the daily charts and may offer a significant break out soon.However,there seems to be still not enough capital in the markets and this may cause the pair to continue consolidating for a while.I will be watching closely for a break out to get in but for now I would remain cautious as the market has still not gathered enough pace for price action to effectively drive it.

 Pair made a bearish break with risk aversion kicking in but cannot get passed 1.0084.Most players are still on the sidelines probably waiting for the fed decision later on.Cable has barely moves today and so have most pairs.

This week 16th Jan 2012

Last week ended with a strong finish ;a down grade of as many as 10 European nations including France and Austria whose  AAA+ ratings were cut to AA+.There was also Italy,Portugal and Spain who were more or less not a surprise with the current economic turmoil in the Euro zone nations.Greek talks have also failed and they are inevitably heading towards a default.All these affected the Euro in the early morning trade opening lower and may just begin that descend to the 2500 mark.

The US dollar on the other hand seems to be enjoying further strengthening especially with these kind of issues compounding against the Euro. However,the market still lacks volumes and there is not enough to make a trend that we can honestly follow as retail traders.Last week we had some lackluster news from Australia but we saw it rise well against the dollar as the other Antipodes nation Newzealand continuing to see strength with the construction of Christchurch.

This week hopefully may begin the return of capital back to the markets that may see some good action back.The last two weeks have been very choppy and price action was a little wanting.There has been speculation of interventions by the Swiss and the Yen that we must be very careful when trading.At times like this when they are considered safe haven currencies, they might gather strength on the short fall only to suddenly move in the opposite direction as a result of interventions that come at times especially when we here are sleeping.You can imagine the night mare.

I have a small long position on the GBP/CHF on the daily chart with last weeks Friday bullish daily bar.Closed position for +2 pips.Price action really lacking at the moment.Market movement is very erratic and unpredictable on the short term due to capital sitting on the sidelines.

Aud/Jpy has formed an ascending triangle on the daily charts and depending on the way things are going we are poised for a break out  in my opinion to the downside to the 77.22 mark on my charts.

This I will be watching closely to see how it performs and try to catch the lower break once it is confirmed.Will continue to update as it progresses.We will also be watching other pairs as the week continues to progress.

This are my thoughts and good luck trading out there.Do a thorough analysis and let me know what you find.

Aud/Usd

Trading short Aud/Usd on the weekly chart to the psychological level of 1000.Last weeks data out from the US being stronger than expected is beginning to show signs that risk aversion is back and that the Usd may begin to see some gains as we continue forward with all the Euro crisis that will not go away.Coupled with a technical analysis that shows the pair getting to a major resistance at around 1.0343 and closing lower may be another signal to go lower this week.

This is a swing trade may take a few days to play out.Lets watch it as it progresses.
Closed trade when it crossed the 50% mark on the fib which indicates that the pair may be moving higher for a while.

 

LIVE TRADES

This is a different year with lots of expectations for everyone.Euro is already much lower as a result of rumors of a France downgrade and Greek may default and leave the Euro zone in a few months.North Korea's Nuclear facilities may also weigh further on the Euro as well and other currencies but the dollar may make some gains this year.
Anyway, I will  this year put on some if not all my live trades for us to see and maybe criticize in an attempt to bring in peoples trades and ideas together.This is in an effort to learn from those with much more skills and experiences than what we have and help those that are still new in this business appreciate trading in another level.
We will see how it goes and improve from there as for now good luck to all those trading out there and may this be the year that pips come to us in abundance.